Professional bettors tend to bet only in single. We explained the reason why in a previous article, in which we demonstrated mathematically, that the premium (the bank’s commission which can vary from 4% to 8%, only in some cases is 2%) is multiplied in the coupons and this creates a big gap against the punter.
Let’s make a simple speech to try to be understandable to the less experienced: let’s take the classic example. Coin toss, 50% chance of heads, and 50% tails.
In theory, the fair odds offered should be 2.00 heads and 2.00 tails. In reality, bookmakers maintain a margin that can be more or less wide. It is their commitment that – as mentioned – is called in jargon.
So let’s assume that 1.95 heads and 1.95 tails will be paid (and they are already two favorable prices on the market). In this case, the bettor is at a disadvantage even if he bets only in single. It should be paid as if it had a 50% chance of winning and instead of the book it has 51.28% and therefore the price is lower. The percentage disadvantage is 1.28%.
Betting strategy: when the gap against the bettor increases
- Let’s say instead that the bettor points in multiple on two tosses of the coin.
- If the odds offered were fair, with 10 wagered on two flips of the coin you would have to pay 30 plus you should get 10 wagered, in total 40, in case you guess both rolls.
- In reality, with two online spins paid out at 1.95, the potential payout would be 28 plus the 10 wagered in case of a win. So 2 less than the risk faced in terms of probability. With respect to the actual odds of hitting the two rolls, the bettor is underpaid.
- If he had bet in single and guessed both bets, he would have left 1 on the street compared to 2 (multiple bet hypothesis).
- From this example, it is easy to understand that by betting in multiples, the disadvantage compared to the house is multiplied. Translated: the premium is multiplied and therefore the gap between potential winnings and probability of exit of the event widens.
- In most the multiple bets, this process takes place: undoubtedly all this enriches the bookmakers while it disadvantages the gamblers who – naively – think instead that with a multiplication of the odds, they can get higher winnings. Exactly the opposite occurs from a long-term perspective.